On average, it takes ice at the North Pole about a year to drift to Fram Strait and 5 years for it to travel from the Beaufort Sea to Fram Strait. During High Arctic Oscillation years the drift from the Beaufort Sea to Fram Strait takes more than a year longer, but ice at the North Pole travels to Fram Strait faster.

With more ice velocity there will be more divergence and thus open leads allowing the conditions for more production of fresh sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean. (For more explanation of the way ice is formed and deformed see also: Is the sea ice disappearing?)

This is, of course, a statistical model. Some days the ice can accelerate and take an expedition kilometers away from its intended track. Especially under a full moon (and thus strong tidal forces) and strong winds the movement of the ice can be dramatic. In 1997 Marc Cornelissen and three colleague explorers experienced ice drift that took the expedition 113 kilometers to the east in 5 days. (also see video)